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North Georgia Winter 2014-2015 Weather Outlook

9/28/2014

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It is already October which means we are only 2 months away from the start of meteorological winter on December 1st. That means it is time for this years winter weather outlook. 

El Niño
When ever we start making long range forecasts for northern Georgia, we always turn our heads to the Pacific Ocean, believe it or not. The temperatures of the ocean determine the weather across the United States more often than not. It will create a pattern or El Niño or La Niña and this year we are expecting an moderate El Niño to set up. El Niño is characterized by unusually warm temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Since we are looking at a moderate setup, we are not expecting full El Niño impacts. 
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Jet Setup
The Polar Jet is what is the big factor when it come to temperatures. Because of the El Niño set up, it will be farther north over the Pacific region and further south over the east. That means cooler than average temperatures are likely in store for us this winter. I would not be surprised if we saw a long cold spell like we had in 2011 when it snowed and stayed below freezing for nearly a week. 

The precipitation factor is determined by where the Sub-Tropical Jet (storm track) sets up. Several computer models have been calling for it to set up across the southern US during the winter for the past few months now. That is good news for the southwest as they will likely get some drought relief. 
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Winter 2014-2015 North Georgia
You may have figured out by now what this means for northern Georgia. Yes, it will be cold because the Polar Jet will setup across central and southern Georgia. Yes, it will be wet because the storm track will be right over us. This does mean we will likely see above average snow this year with 4-5 events that effect travel. Ice will also likely be a problem with the Polar Jet hanging around. If it were to set up further north, that means we will be flirting with the 32 degree mark on several occasions and that will create some ice if we have precipitation when that happens. 
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Severe storms are possible again tonight

6/6/2014

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*If the text is red, you can click on it to learn more about the word or words.
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This stormy pattern will continue in to today. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has put areas in the red under a "Slight Risk" for severe weather. A storm complex has set up in the Oklahoma City/Norman area this morning. That will begin to make its way towards Georgia today. With this, we may see some severe weather after sun set tonight. 


This is almost like yesterday. Since we have had stalled front over us, we have seen storm system after storm system. These are called MCS,  mesoscale convective system. 
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The stalled front serves as train tracks for the MCS's to move along. Today, the stalled front is a little farther south than yesterday. So, the folks down closer to Macon up to the Rome area and southward will see the best chance of storms. Today's storms include  the possibility of large hail but, the biggest threat is damaging winds. 


We will have all of the watches and warnings on our Facebook and Twitter pages. Be sure to LIKE us on Facebook and FOLLOW us on Twitter!
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Someone Will See Snow...Tonight

3/6/2014

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The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Dawson, Fannin, Gilmer, Lumpkin, Murray, Pickens, Towns, Union, and White Counties beginning at 7 PM tonight and running until 10 AM tomorrow. 1-2" of snow is likely in the 
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2 Winter Storms on Our Hands

2/9/2014

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By: Alex Forbes
Last Updated: 2/9/2014   2:15 PM
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We will likely see a pretty big ice, snow, and sleet event across Northern Georgia tomorrow night. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Banks, Barrow, Bartow, Carroll, Catoosa, Chattooga, Cherokee, Cobb, Dade, Dawson, DeKalb, Douglas, Fannin, Floyd, Forsyth, Fulton, Gilmer, Gordon, Gwinnett, Hall, Haralson, Jackson, Lumpkin, Murray, Paulding, Pickens, Polk, Towns, Union, Walker, White, and Whitfield Counties starting Monday night through Tuesday morning. 
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Their will be 2 systems that move through the area. The first system, which has been named "Pax" by The Weather Channel, comes in starting tomorrow night, all models are in agreement that we will see the potential for snow and sleet at first with a dusting south of I-20, 1-2 inches possible across most of Metro Atlanta, 2-3" likely in the Central and Northwest Georgia Mountains,and up to 4" mainly in the Northeast Georgia Mountains.

Then comes the second system. It will likely warrant the Winter Storm Watch to be extended through Thursday. Wednesday morning with the second system, we could have a major winter storm on our hands. Model trends are showing this to be more of an ice event. We will be watching this very carefully as we get closer and closer to the event. 

Bottom line is this, 2 winter storms likely within a week across North Georgia. The first one will be sleet and snow across the area. The second appears to be a ice event, still to early to put in a definite yes on the ice. LIKE North Georgia Weather Center on Facebook and FOLLOW North Georgia Weather Center on Twitter for the latest!

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NGWC to Improve Communications with Threat Index

1/30/2014

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After the meltdown in Atlanta, and after a conference call we listened to last night, we are debuting a new graphic laying out the impacts likely to happen across Atlanta and across the mountains of North Georgia.

Because Atlanta officials dismissed the storm's impacts before it arrived, crippled the city. Because of that, we are announcing the Atlanta Threat Index. This is a scale on 1 to 10 that will layout the impacts and how it will effect you. Some factors that will be into place are...

  • timing of the day (overnight, middle of work day, weekend, ect.)
  • amount of snow or ice
  • length of time before a storm
  • type of product put out by NWS Atlanta (Winter Weather Advisory, Winter Storm Warning, ect.)
  • type of traffic expected

A sample of what the graphic will look like is above. The numbers will be on the left. The higher the number, the higher the impact. 


In the conference call we listened into last night, several on-camera meteorologist from around the country pointed out a big thing. People need to know not only the weather but also how the storm will impact them and their day. This will not be put out on a daily basis, only when a storm is threatening. We hope this will help people make their decisions on what to do in a incoming storm in North Georgia.
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